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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward formula. It frequently acts as a type of apology. We regret we underestimated your team in our preseason forecasts.

On paper, it's a direct line: the skipper who engineered the largest improvement receives the prize. However, it sparks an annual argument about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding superior coaching or simply the biggest upset.

But the current race is distinctly unique. The list of contenders is remarkably strong. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with recent conference winners falling away and longtime underperformers ascending together. During an typical year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in such a chaotic and thrilling year, he's facing five other elite candidates.

This is how the projected vote could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper system, the QB has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his rare ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's prolonged excellence. With Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the system rather than freelancing. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that springs wide receiver targets all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when openings weren't available, he's been capable to create magic from broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Almost each decision – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has worked. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the organization with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a typical year, he would be the runaway choice. But this isn't a typical season!

The area where his candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. However Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has engineered a rapid turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has excelled at the leadership aspects, which wasn't a certainty following his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching cocktail of youth and experience, Coen trusted newbies. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. But he has pulled everyone and all elements together.

Following an early hot start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the team stumbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the season in October. Instead, it defined it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed since that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him just one spot ahead of peers.

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